Aftyn Behn's Strong Performance Should Worry Republicans
This Tennessee race was never supposed to be competitive
To my great disappointment, Aftyn Behn, a rising progressive star from Tennessee, did not flip her House district on Tuesday — resulting in Congress gaining another Trump sycophant in Matt Van Epps.
Nevertheless, the race for Tennessee’s 7th congressional district produced favorable results for Democrats, especially considering its hostile (and heavily gerrymandered) demographics.
According to election results published by the New York Times, every county within the district experienced a sizeable leftward shift compared to November 2024. In Davidson County especially, which cuts through Nashville, Aftyn Behn outperformed Kamala Harris’s results by a whopping 20-point margin.
A loss is still a loss, but if this trend holds at the national level, there are plenty of close elections across the country that are now within striking distance for Democrats. At this point in time, a blue wave is the most likely outcome for the 2026 midterms.
If the average results of this year’s special elections are an accurate bellwether for next November, then Republicans are going to be washed out to sea — even more so compared to 2018.
Better yet, this latest outcome was achieved despite Behn embodying all the usual pitfalls of electoral politics in rural America — being educated, being a woman, and genuinely caring about other people. Moreover, Republicans found an old soundbite of Behn admitting her distaste for country music and Nashville’s status of a tourist trap, which would ordinarily be a political death sentence for someone in her position.
Because, as we know by this point, these races are basically just grade school popularity contests where policy and substance don’t matter.
Even so, Behn cut down the GOP’s advantage down to single digits (around +8 at the time of writing), while Trump last carried the district by a colossal +22-point margin. While I hate to admit it, a country-loving moderate male Democrat might have been able to narrow down the results even further.
Nevertheless, I doubt this is the end of her story. Although she won’t have a seat in the U.S. House — where she easily would have become my next congressional crush — she will remain a Tennessee state representative for the near future. They might not realize it, but her local constituents are incredibly lucky to have her.
Overall, last night’s outcome was still an incredible outcome for Behn and the Democratic Party as a whole.
And with her newfound national notoriety, Behn could just as easily build on her success to make a potential run for Senate, whenever conditions are more favorable. This was the approach taken by Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, who transformed his losing House election into a successful campaign only a few years later — helping turn a Republican stronghold into a competitive purple state. Perhaps after spending some more time building up her brand, Behn could find similar success in Tennessee.
In any case, the fact that Trump and his allies are now having to sweat over the results of congressional elections in deep red (and heavily gerrymandered) districts is an undeniable sign that America is beginning to sour on the president’s demented agenda.
Let’s hope these trends hold next year.